Archive for the ‘healthcare spending’ Category

Fastest Growing Metro Areas: How will Healthcare be impacted?

Friday, June 5th, 2009

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Raleigh, Provo UT, and Fort Myers are going to double in size in the next 15 years.

New York, LA, and Chicago — the 1, 2, 3 of largest metros — are only going to grow by 10%.

Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (4, 5, and 6) will grow about 50%.

As the Boomers retire to warm weather states, the change and impact to healthcare delivery services will be two fold. First, end-of-life care in these metro areas will boom, which has mixed financial results. Second, the migration of Boomers out of other (Northern/Mid-West) cities will reduce the baseline procedures that most healthcare systems rely on to stay in the black. (Heart, ortho, neuro, cancer, and peds/OBGYN.)

This suggests that we’ll see a clear two-tier health system emerge in the most rapidly growing cities — new buildings, new technology, new delivery mechanisms but likely only for those who can pay for it.

More about Metro growth here.

Forget Bernie Madoff, is Social Security the #1 Ponzi Scheme?

Thursday, January 8th, 2009

In the wake of the Madoff disaster, I have read some minor op-eds citing Social Security as the biggest Ponzi scheme ever.

Really? 

Honestly, I would think that this kind of talk might not warrant coverage from CNBC, whose article “The Real ‘Mother’ of All Ponzi Schemes” likens our national safety net for seniors and the poor to losing your money in fictitious investments.

I quote:

We feel bad for the people who came late in investing with Bernie Madoff and got burned when his Ponzi scheme fell apart. Now, I don’t begrudge anyone their social security benefits, but I also don’t want my generation to be feeling sorry for itself when our time to collect comes around and the money isn’t there.

Mitchell Zuckoff offers his retort at CNN via Social Security a Ponzi scheme? No way!

P.S.  For those following the Madoff scandal — as I am, shamelessly — I would commend the Boston Globe article about the chief whistleblower Harry Markopolos.

Why Smart, Ticked Off Computer Guys Are Looking to Destroy Your Hospital

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Having gone through my venture capital financing hazing in the late nineties, one of the features I’ve noticed about businesses that get funded are those which have a “disruptive” model to them.   VCs enjoy the idea that their investments will not only create value for their own businesses but, in the words of a (very successful) VC firm, First Round Capital:

We love investing in technologies and business models that are able to shrink existing markets. If your company can take $5 of revenue from a competitor for every $1 you earn – let’s talk!

Now, there are some solid economic reasons for this objective in a start-up.  If you can shrink existing markets and remain profitable, you’re more efficient and the free market will reward you as the eventual winner.  It works great for discretionary spending, like a new ATV or cell phone gadgets or weight loss creme, but it does not work well for healthcare.

You see, dear readers, if you work at a hospital, that market is you.

You will notice a variety of entrants into this space who are all fired about how bad healthcare is and, sure enough, they’re right.  Healthcare is broken.  As I said on my last post, we can all agree on that.   The question is why, and what can be done about it.

One answer is that we need to give the individual patients the access to the “best” doctors, regardless of location or cost and empower them with the “best” knowledge for how they can navigate the arcane healthcare system.  That way, we can cause a consumer revolution!  Because, you know, consumerism is the best!  Rah, rah, yeah!

I understand that our American education is insufficient when it comes to fundamental economic knowledge, nevermind the essentials of game theory, but I wonder, have these people ever seen A Beautiful Mind?

If so, they might grasp the fundamentals of at least John Nash’s work on competition and scarcity: an individual striving for their own gain cost without regard for others costs the group as a whole more than if the group conspired together to allocate resources collaboratively.   (A vast over-simplification, for which I apologize, Mr. Nash.)

In other words: there is nothing to suggest a purely individualistic, consumer-driven healthcare strategy will produce any more “efficiency” than our current system and much to suggest it will create considerably less.   As some get much, much better care (and pay for it), others will necessarily get much, much worse care.

Healthcare is not a pure commodity because it is a social good and the same rules don’t apply.

This is why, although I share the sentiments of many of these companies, at MedTouch, we choose to work with hospitals.  When hospitals stay healthy, they can continue to serve the communities in which they are located.  That’s a (socially) good thing.

I’m all for efficiency, but efficiency at the cost of disrupting the healthcare delivery mechanism for the poorest members of our society is not just a bad idea, it’s un-American.

WWDD — What Will Tom Daschle Do?

Monday, November 24th, 2008

The former Senator Tom Daschle has been picked for the HHS top spot, and there’s been some excellent speculation — I mean, coverage about what Daschle might do once in office.   I think we often miss the forest for the trees when we talk in these grand policy terms.  Sure, the healthcare system is broken.  I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who disagrees on that point, but it’s very difficult to agree on how it’s broken.

WWDD?  Let Americans pay for healthcare, regardless of job status, and create a healthcare Federal Reserve to oversee the policies and power of the Federal Healthcare program. 

The conversations we need to have from a policy side are precisely around what kind of healthcare Americans want in this country: the best for all, the best for some, or the most efficient for all?  The solutions look much different for each scenario.

Also from WSJ:  Five Health Myths Busted. 

#2 is a joy for me.  It perfectly represents our natural ability to misjudge trade-offs, but I would temper Mr. Hensley’s position by the simple fact that, at the end of your life, you prefer a few extra years to a Corvette you might have preferred along the way.  (Assuming they’ll still be making those next year, but I digress.) 

And I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing.

How to Create a More Just, Two Tiered Healthcare System on the Cheap

Saturday, November 8th, 2008

You know I love a  solid economic assessment of healthcare:

Either Americans in the higher income strata must step up to the cashier’s window to help subsidize, with higher income taxes, the health care of the most hard-working members of the lower income classes, or the United States will have to evolve toward a noticeable two-tiered or multi-tiered health care system, with bare-bones, low-tech health care for families in the bottom half of the income distribution and increasingly superior, high-tech health care for families in the upper-income strata.

– from The Health Care Challenge: Sailing Into a Perfect Storm, The New York Times

The writer, an economist at Princeton, sees what most in healthcare like to ignore: that healthcare is a commodity of which there is limited resources and that which can be quantified.  The question, in economic terms, is how much healthcare do Americans need vs. how much are they willing to pay for?  And how should they pay for it?

In our current model, the answer to the first is as much as possible, and to the second, as little as possible.  Aye, there’s the rub.

I have spent the week in Singapore, learning about healthcare here and seeking to understand why medical tourism can flourish.  I have noted that a key feature of the Singaporean system is that medical expenses are all out of pocket — whether you’re rich or poor, you still pay cash based on a sliding scale fee.   That means, in general terms, more money = “better” care.  

You can go to a public hospital where you will wait for 4 hours to see a doctor for $65 or to a private hospital with a nicer facility and no wait time for $100.  One outcome of a cash-based system is that the prices are more closely tied to the costs of delivery.  Why?  Competition.  You need to have a justification for being more expensive than another hospital and I must see, understand, and value that difference enough to pay for it. 

In the US, we charge the people who pay cash the most money.  This is just bad business. It’s like showing up in need at a hotel and having to pay rack rates – rates 50% higher than what anyone else pays.  Hotels price the demand, not the supply.  Meaning, whether they have 100 free rooms or 1, when you show up in the lobby, desperate, they’re going to charge you the highest rate possible.

Only unlike a hotel, you have less control of when you “show up.”  You never are forced to check in because, for example, you’re bleeding out one ear. 

Also, unlike a hotel, you can show up to a hospital with no money, and still get a room.  This is even worse business.

A two-tiered system of healthcare is not only inevitable but it may be a positive outcome for all, as long as this is best settled from a policy standpoint. 

Here’s my latest crazy idea:

  • What if we offered surgery credits that hospitals could trade with each other, much in the way carbon credits are spoken about for factories?  
  • What if a hospital system needed to offer fast, cheap, preventative care at certain volumes, perhaps delivered via clinics located in post offices, to earn those credits? 
  • What if those systems that did the most clinic care could then fund themselves entirely by selling surgery credits to free-standing, doctor-run hospitals?

The conclusion is that the government needs to facilitate a dialog about the social value of health care and help bring rationalization to a market which has the wrong incentives.  I think the output of healthcare should be good health.  It’s not, because hospitals don’t get paid for keeping people healthy.

In the US, it is in my best interest for my tax dollars to ensure that my fellow citizens are productive members of society.  The longer, heathlier lives they live, the better their economic output and great contribution back into the collective tax system from which all American derive value.

(It’s worth noting that the countries with the longest average lifespan are Japan and Iceland, both of which are island nations with limited resrouces that, nonetheless, have enriched their population.  Ok, I know Iceland is bankrupt, but that’s unrelated to the productivity of their society.  My point stands for much of the last 60 years.)

So, when I say I want a lot of fast, cheap, and nearly free preventative care, I am being utterly selfish.  I’m saying I want America to grow, I want American to prosper, and I want my fellow Americans to live long, productive lives. 

I do not think it is as expensive of a proposition as people think.

Hospitals See Drop in Paying Patients

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Per our webinar on the financial crisis: 

In another sign of the economy’s toll on the nation’s health care system, some hospitals say they are seeing fewer paying patients — even as greater numbers of people are showing up at emergency rooms unable to pay their bills.

Hospitals See Drop in Paying Patients, New York Times

I was hoping this wouldn’t happen for 2 years or so, but a client alerted me to this after noting a downtick in volume and wondering if it was pandemic.

The Impact on the Global Financial Crisis, Part II

Tuesday, October 21st, 2008


MedTouch Webinar: The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Healthcare, Part II from MedTouch on Vimeo.

The news about the financial sector meltdown is everywhere, but how will it impact healthcare?

In this second part of a special webinar, Paul Griffiths, the CEO of MedTouch, will walk through how the sub-prime crisis led into Wall St. failures, which has spilled over into the bond market, threatening usual routes of funding for healthcare, muncipalities, and non-profits.

We’ll review what hard decisions providers will have to make over the coming year, and talk through some possible short and long term results from the financial bailout.

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Healthcare

What you’ll learn:

* Why the financial crisis started
* Why the crisis will make it harder for hospitals to stay in the black
* Which healthcare providers should do today

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Healthcare, Part I

Tuesday, October 21st, 2008


The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Healthcare, Part I from MedTouch on Vimeo.

The Global Financial Crisis and Healthcare: A Special Webinar

Monday, October 13th, 2008

If, like me, you’ve been watching the global financial crisis with awe and dismay, you’ve probably started wondering how all of this will impact healthcare.

In brief, there are three main financial instruments that have kept many hospitals open in the last few years — bonds, investments, and charitable giving — and each of these is at risk given the current market situation.    

To explain these issues, we’re giving a special webinar this Weds, October 15th at 2pm EDT, 1pm CST, Noon MST, and 11am PST.

We’ll talk about how the crisis happened, why it spread so quickly, and how providers and payors made be impacted by the continued market gyrations, the freeze up in commercial paper, and the financial bailout package approved by Congress.

This webinar is free to attend and will last about 45 minutes.

Physician Shortages: 3 Big Reasons It’s Getting Harder to Find Doctors… And the Adverse Impacts to Patient Care

Monday, August 4th, 2008

We’ve done a fair amount of research this year on the impact of the physician shortage and how it will hamstring the marketing, planning, and delivery of healthcare services in the future.

The silent killer is patient access.   The less chance a patient has of being seen quickly, the worse off he or she will be.  Having an adequate supply of doctors is the basic ingredient of healthcare delivery.  And primary care doctors, who provide those front-line services, are getting even harder to find.

Here’s three reasons why you might be facing an uphill battle, wherever you are.

1. Supply is dwindling.

The AMA reports that nearly half of its members are 50 or older.   If you segment out primary care docs, the news gets worse.   Medical schools are graduating an increasing rate of some specialists, but primary-care graduate rates are falling as medical school becomes an increasingly costly investment.   In the wake of the Patriot Act and the falling value of the dollar, there’s also the fact that more international students are going back home instead of staying put.   (Thomas Friedman calls this the “reverse brain drain” in his book, The World is Flat.)

2. Demand is growing. 

The US population continues to a) grow and b) require more healthcare.   From an economic point of view, there’s no reason to think demand will curtail any time soon.  In fact, hospitals are seeking to drive more care to newly created Centers of Excellence to address complex diseases and conditions.  As more people demand more care from more providers, the rate of demand increases in both directions: hospitals need more doctors to improve patient access as well as treatment.  A client recently told me that a few treatment positions added to ease the strain on the existing physicians were now completely swamped with diagnostic visits.

3. Increasing alternatives to traditional practice models.

While graduating physicians can choose to start or join a traditional practice, there are a variety of other avenues as a result of the changing demands of new docs.  Whether hospitalist positions, physician-run speciality practices, locum tenens assignments, or roles within bio-tech companies, these options often provide fewer hours and more work/life balance than the classic physician practice model.  (Example: many hospitals around the country are now paying for “on call” services.)  Considering that 50% of the med school population are now women, these options will increase, primarily clustered around delivering less hours and less stress.

What’s the solution?

More on that later this week, but we’ll give you a hint: it has something to do with our upcoming webinar.