We’ve done a fair amount of research this year on the impact of the physician shortage and how it will hamstring the marketing, planning, and delivery of healthcare services in the future.

The silent killer is patient access.   The less chance a patient has of being seen quickly, the worse off he or she will be.  Having an adequate supply of doctors is the basic ingredient of healthcare delivery.  And primary care doctors, who provide those front-line services, are getting even harder to find.

Here’s three reasons why you might be facing an uphill battle, wherever you are.

1. Supply is dwindling.

The AMA reports that nearly half of its members are 50 or older.   If you segment out primary care docs, the news gets worse.   Medical schools are graduating an increasing rate of some specialists, but primary-care graduate rates are falling as medical school becomes an increasingly costly investment.   In the wake of the Patriot Act and the falling value of the dollar, there’s also the fact that more international students are going back home instead of staying put.   (Thomas Friedman calls this the “reverse brain drain” in his book, The World is Flat.)

2. Demand is growing. 

The US population continues to a) grow and b) require more healthcare.   From an economic point of view, there’s no reason to think demand will curtail any time soon.  In fact, hospitals are seeking to drive more care to newly created Centers of Excellence to address complex diseases and conditions.  As more people demand more care from more providers, the rate of demand increases in both directions: hospitals need more doctors to improve patient access as well as treatment.  A client recently told me that a few treatment positions added to ease the strain on the existing physicians were now completely swamped with diagnostic visits.

3. Increasing alternatives to traditional practice models.

While graduating physicians can choose to start or join a traditional practice, there are a variety of other avenues as a result of the changing demands of new docs.  Whether hospitalist positions, physician-run speciality practices, locum tenens assignments, or roles within bio-tech companies, these options often provide fewer hours and more work/life balance than the classic physician practice model.  (Example: many hospitals around the country are now paying for “on call” services.)  Considering that 50% of the med school population are now women, these options will increase, primarily clustered around delivering less hours and less stress.

What’s the solution?

More on that later this week, but we’ll give you a hint: it has something to do with our upcoming webinar.